Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 54384.157505 57634.873317 60893.220250 64401.620876 68069.848019 71789.308587 75843.181244
2024-10-13 49100.085374 54053.877223 59167.165565 64830.956310 70920.264454 77261.693227 84356.349564
2024-10-20 45095.613348 51171.861894 57590.853092 64859.699808 72844.396816 81330.389528 91012.950554
2024-10-27 41842.081058 48716.883955 56123.046115 64666.009655 74218.640649 84541.484226 96509.606451
2024-11-03 39972.932335 47579.278965 55911.668266 65674.418810 76755.172493 88896.587175 103160.323144
2024-11-10 38257.938090 46460.720311 55583.456745 66423.322166 78891.447896 92721.869794 109159.849049
2024-11-17 36549.293183 45225.549989 55011.676172 66791.630522 80507.637076 95893.761268 114374.676765
2024-11-24 34821.564997 43863.171935 54198.416496 66792.323124 81624.761792 98437.745848 118830.767052
2024-12-01 33444.257081 42836.387701 53706.571859 67102.981214 83047.534913 101294.560916 123624.841181
2024-12-08 32050.737859 41718.626354 53042.789119 67150.748002 84111.515558 103698.099874 127869.986338
2024-12-15 31261.199275 41290.874615 53166.846946 68107.321934 86231.110085 107330.493577 133564.404513
2024-12-22 29994.486163 40218.126590 52458.949325 68012.313514 87052.370451 109400.011999 137395.389102
2024-12-29 29371.441392 39935.826732 52715.145794 69101.941158 89330.428394 113250.218716 143420.203101
2025-01-05 28509.983377 39318.092874 52528.998771 69626.263257 90909.488010 116264.467869 148462.920134
2025-01-12 27478.576818 38441.828020 51983.402919 69671.292889 91874.555475 118521.756839 152589.724674
2025-01-19 26398.839282 37461.548958 51268.811876 69469.220424 92504.549179 120351.334263 156187.810171
2025-01-26 25955.286542 37291.728477 51568.846463 70537.643080 94715.946779 124126.454741 162188.524341
2025-02-02 25419.654587 36977.201834 51664.130403 71330.661107 96574.183264 127468.725858 167672.549662
2025-02-09 24743.074878 36448.854014 51460.230867 71720.590381 97909.833106 130158.841800 172357.311462
2025-02-16 23941.023783 35723.252203 50973.356458 71721.329384 98731.960046 132198.185869 176232.395826
2025-02-23 23313.174914 35212.885970 50750.712627 72050.182905 99964.213763 134749.954936 180757.328264
2025-03-02 22606.411944 34570.166422 50330.869894 72100.745959 100822.906928 136823.170231 184683.026914
2025-03-09 22305.216754 34479.306747 50641.381945 73113.227516 102933.455012 140496.512211 190655.698211